Bold claim: Ryan Poles may break his usual patience and push to trade up in the first round. Since taking over in 2022, the Chicago Bears' general manager has stuck to a steady, methodical draft plan: don’t chase hype, stay disciplined, and prioritize the best available player on the board in Round 1. Across the last three drafts, Poles has not moved up on the first night. His only notable maneuver came in 2023 when he traded down twice. In 2024 and 2025, he stayed put and picked the top-rated prospect still on the board.
That approach made sense when Chicago habitually drafted in the top 10. The odds favored landing a solid contributor without chasing flash. Early returns from Caleb Williams, Darnell Wright, and Rome Odunze suggested the strategy paid off. But this year is different. Chicago holds the 25th pick in the first round—the lowest slot they’ve used since 2011. And that isn’t the only reason Poles might consider moving up.
A key factor is the 2026 draft class itself.
ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller conducts an annual review of what he terms true first-round players. He marks 32 players as Round 1 selections, but only a subset truly belong in that tier. Based on his early tape evaluations, the 2026 class appears weaker at the top than any recent draft. Miller notes that the average class has about 15 players who warrant Day 1 status, though the exact number varies by team and scouting department. He uses a practical benchmark: would a player have been a first-round pick in each of the past five classes?
By that standard, Miller graded just 13 players as true first-round talents in the 2025 class—the lowest count he’s ever recorded. For 2026, the tally is even smaller, with 11 players holding true first-round status at this stage.
Why this matters for Bears fans. In 2024 and 2025, Miller’s evaluations aligned with outcomes: most of the players he labeled true first-rounders in those drafts went on to be top-20 selections or close. This year, with only a handful of such players identified, Chicago’s window to snag a guaranteed impact player is narrower. If Poles wants a guaranteed difference-maker, moving up becomes more compelling.
Poles has shown he understands that sometimes the ideal player isn’t perfectly aligned with the board. There was a motivation to move up in the second round last year for a specific reason: the Bears were concerned Ohio State running back TreyVeon Henderson wouldn’t be available at their slot (#39). Henderson went one pick earlier at #38, which helped them land Luther Burden, but the risk and stakes are higher this year. Chicago just finished a strong playoff push and resembles a team on the cusp of Super Bowl contention. They need another impact player to challenge the NFC’s elite.
If Poles does decide to climb, how far could he reasonably go? A useful historical touchstone is the 2017 Houston Texans, who traded a future first-round pick to move from 25th to 12th to draft Deshaun Watson. In that spirit, the likeliest target range for Poles would be around picks 11–13, contingent on the specific player he covets and the willingness of others to move.
Three players stand out as plausible Bears targets if a jump happens:
- Rueben Bain Jr., Miami, edge rusher
- David Bailey, Texas Tech, edge rusher
- Caleb Downs, Ohio State, safety
Why these three? Bain and Bailey play premium positions—the edge rushers Chicago desperately needs to disrupt quarterbacks. Both are explosive, with passes often being difficult to block in obvious passing downs. Downs, meanwhile, represents a plug-and-play solution at safety, a position where Chicago has significant turnover risk this year if veteran starters don’t return. Downs is widely regarded as one of the top safety prospects in years and could be the kind of immediate, long-term starter the Bears have not had at safety since Mark Carrier decades ago.
If one of those names slips into the 11–13 range in April, don’t be surprised if Poles starts dialing to explore a move up. The decision to trade up would hinge on who the Bears covet most and whether the return to climb is worth the cost of future picks.
Author’s note: Erik Lambert has covered the Bears for over 15 years. He’s contributed to Sports Mockery and spoken on 670 The Score and ESPN 1000 about Bears strategy, roster moves, and team developments.
Would you rather see Poles stay patient and trust the deep options at their current spot, or gamble on a calculated climb to secure one of these potential impact players? Share your thoughts in the comments.
